The headline that caught everyone’s attention was the cheap end of the market: 18 flats sold at or below S$300,000 in May 2026, twice April’s count, almost all of them with 50 years or fewer remaining on their leases. It reads like a warning. In a sense, it is.

But look at the other end of the same month. A four-room adjoined “jumbo” flat at Block 50 Moh Guan Terrace in Tiong Bahru sold for S$1.53 million — a new national record for a four-room resale flat — despite having roughly 45 years left on its lease. Across May, 166 flats crossed the million-dollar mark, up from 138 in April, making up about 7.8% of all resale transactions.

So what actually separates the S$300,000 flat from the S$1.53 million flat? It is rarely the lease alone. It is location, layout, floor area, condition, and scarcity - the same fundamentals that drive every other asset class. The Moh Guan Terrace flat is large, rare, and sits in a mature central estate where supply is tight. The sub-S$300,000 flats tend to be smaller units in less central locations, where an ageing lease meets an ageing building and thin buyer demand at the same time.

The lease still matters — but mostly because of financing and CPF rules, not sentiment. When a flat’s remaining lease can no longer cover the youngest buyer to age 95, CPF usage and HDB loan eligibility start to tighten. As the lease runs down further, the buyer pool narrows to those who can pay more in cash. Fewer eligible buyers means slower sales and softer prices — which is exactly the squeeze the sub-S$300,000 segment is feeling.

The takeaway for owners is not panic. It is timing. An ageing-lease flat is not worthless; it is on a clock. The owners who do well are the ones who calculate the runway early — remaining lease, eligible buyer pool, CPF rules at the buyer’s age, and the realistic transaction window — and act while the asset still commands a healthy pool of qualified buyers. The owners who do poorly are the ones who wait, watch the buyer pool shrink, and then wonder why the offers came in low.

If you own a flat with a shortening lease, the most valuable thing we can give you is not an opinion. It is a proper calculation and a timeline.