HDB flash estimates put the resale price index at 203.4 in Q1 2026, down 0.1% — the first quarterly decline since 2019. It’s slight, but it follows several quarters of slowing growth and arrives as supply expands sharply: around 13,480 flats reach their Minimum Occupation Period in 2026, nearly double last year’s figure. More choice for buyers, less bidding pressure for sellers.
Yet the market isn’t soft everywhere. Million-dollar flat transactions actually rose over the quarter, concentrated in mature estates such as Toa Payoh, Queenstown and Bukit Merah. The picture looks less like a downturn and more like a market finding balance.
For sellers, that means pricing to current reality — facing, layout, and condition — matters more than ever. For upgraders, a flatter HDB market alongside a rising private market changes the math on when to move. If you’re weighing a sale or an upgrade this year, the sequencing deserves careful planning rather than a reaction to headlines.
